Taking the work of Clark Foster at Royals Authority and playing around with it a little bit.
Below is a chart of the 2008 opening day roster and the projected 2009 squad.
2008 ERA/OPS 2009 ERA/OPS (CHONE Proj.)
Grienke 3.47 Greinke 4.20 -21%
Meche 3.98 Meche 4.21 - 6%
Bale 4.39 Hochevar 4.97 -13%
Banny 5.76 Banny 5.01 13%
Tomko 6.97 Davies 5.26 25%
0%
Soria 1.60 Soria 3.10 -94%
R. Ram 2.64 Tejeda 3.95 -50%
Nunez 2.98 Bale 4.24 -42%
Mahay 3.48 H. Ram 4.70 -35%
Yabuta 4.78 Gobble 4.73 1%
Peralta 5.98 Farns 4.73 21%
Gobble 8.81 Mahay 4.74 46%
-22%
Olivo 722 Buck 703 - 3%
Buck 669 Olivo 677 1%
- 1%
Gordon 783 Butler 800 2%
Grudz 744 Gordon 789 6%
Callas 732 Jacobs 787 8%
Butler 724 Aviles 742 2%
Gload 665 Callaspo 731 10%
German 641 German 720 12%
Pena 398 Bloom 664 67%
15%
Dejesus 818 Teahen 767 - 6%
Guillen 738 DeJesus 760 3%
Teahen 715 Guillen 745 4%
Gath 583 Crisp 732 26%
7%
Yes, it’s getting late at the office and it’s crazy math time!
A few minor notes:
– Matt Tupman was on the opening day roster due to a suspension for Miguel Olivo last season, so I have replaced him with Joel Peralta to give a better look at the team as it was actually constructed.
– I’m giving Esteban German the nod over Ross Gload as a back-up infielder, because it’s my blog and I can do what I want.
– Each group is ranked from best to worst. The 2009 projected numbers come from the CHONE system.
– the percentages are for how much better or worse the position is expected to be this season. For example, the best starter is expected to be 21% WORSE this year than last. The worst outfielder is expected to be 26% BETTER than last year.
– I’ve also broken down each group so as to draw some wild conclusions based on math that is faulty at best.
A few wild conclusions:
– While the starting pitching may not break exactly as shown (I think Grienke is about to have a break-out season), the overall improvement of 0% seems about right to me. Meche may be in for a small regression, Banny should be a little better, and the 4-5 starters will probably be a mish-mash of talent from triple-A and the free-agent scrap heap all season.
– The relief corps has a chance if Soria and Tejada can keep up their mojo from last season and the damage from the rest of the pen is minimized. This will be Trey Hillman’s greatest challenge this season.
– Willie Bloomquist may suck, but he’s not the black hole that Tony Pena Jr. was last season. If he’s used properly in a back up capacity, his signing should not kill the team, just wound them. Somebody needs to volunteer to hide all the liquor bottles from Callaspo so we can see what he’s capable of over a full season.
– Replacing Joey Gathwright with Coco Crisp is an improvement, and not a small one. I will miss the possibility of Joey jumping over two or more players in order to escape a rundown at some point in the season.
Have a great weekend.
