The most famous Royals optimist out there, Rany Jazayerli, has hypothesized that the Jose Guillen deal is but one domino in a long chain of moves that General Manager Dayton Moore plans over this current off season.
It had better be.
According to Dan Szymborski’s early projections for next year, the best lineup the Kansas City Royals can produce in 2008 is this:
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG OPS
Butler dh 22 288 360 471 831
Gordon 3b 24 264 339 453 792
DeJesus cf 28 287 355 431 786
Teahen rf 26 279 351 431 782
Gload 1b 32 292 332 447 779
Guillen lf 32 262 327 432 759
German 2b 30 284 364 383 747
Buck c 27 232 301 394 695
Pena ss 27 270 294 354 648
Running the numbers through the lineup analysis tool on Baseball Musings, the most this lineup could hope to produce is 4.90 runs a game.
In 2007, the Royals averaged 4.36 runs a game.
If these projections were to hold true, the Royals would end up with approximately 89 more runs in 2008 then they had in 2007. The quick and dirty rule is that 10 runs equal one win, so let’s say that through the addition of Jose Guillen and the projected improvement of other young players, the Royals will be tacking on nine extra wins next year.
That would put them at 78 wins… 83 if you want to go by Pythagorean record.
83 wins will not get it done in the American League Central.
Dayton needs to do more.
